# Playing Against a Dealer 10, Hand by Hand

The dealer 10 column of the basic strategy chart, cell by cell: why hard 15 and 16 surrender, why 9,9 stands on its 18, and why hard 11 is the one double left.

Source: https://21trainer.app/articles/basic-strategy-vs-dealer-ten/
Updated: October 9, 2026
Publisher: 21 Trainer, makers of Blackjack Strategy: 21 Trainer, an educational blackjack trainer for iPhone and Android (App Store: https://apps.apple.com/app/blackjack-strategy-21-trainer/id6759527695, Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.blackjacktrainer)

> **Educational content, not gambling advice.** 21 Trainer and this article teach blackjack strategy and card counting as skills, using virtual chips only. No strategy or counting system guarantees winnings, and nothing here encourages real-money play. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-522-4700 (National Council on Problem Gambling).

Every strong upcard has a signature, and the 10's is a wall of 20s. Per the [final total distribution tables](https://21trainer.app/articles/dealer-final-total-distribution/) computed by Wizard of Odds for six decks with the dealer standing on soft 17, a dealer showing a 10, already checked for blackjack, finishes on exactly 20 about 36.8 percent of the time, more than any other single total, and busts only 23.0 percent. The 10 is also the upcard you meet most: ten value cards are four of the thirteen ranks, 10 through king, so the upcard is ten valued about 30.8 percent of the time, four times as often as any single other rank, per our [upcard guide](https://21trainer.app/articles/dealer-upcard-guide/).

Three things change when the upcard moves from a 9 to a 10. Hard 10 and 5,5 stop doubling and hit. The pair of 9s goes from split to stand. And hard 15 joins hard 16 as a surrender. This is the last of our column walks, after the [7](https://21trainer.app/articles/basic-strategy-vs-dealer-seven/), [9](https://21trainer.app/articles/basic-strategy-vs-dealer-nine/) and [ace](https://21trainer.app/articles/basic-strategy-vs-dealer-ace/).

Conditions throughout match the app's standard shoe chart: the dealer peeks, blackjack pays 3:2, double on any two cards, late surrender where offered, four to eight decks, dealer stands on soft 17 unless stated.

## The whole column, one table

The dealer 10 column for four to eight decks, hard totals, soft hands, then pairs.

| Your hand | Play against a dealer 10 |
| --- | --- |
| Hard 8, 9 and 10 | Hit |
| Hard 11 | Double if allowed, otherwise hit |
| Hard 12, 13 and 14 | Hit |
| Hard 15 and hard 16 | Surrender if allowed, otherwise hit |
| Hard 17 and up | Stand |
| Soft 13 through soft 18 (A,2 through A,7) | Hit |
| Soft 19 | Stand |
| Soft 20 | Stand |
| 2,2 3,3 4,4 6,6 7,7 | Hit |
| 5,5 | Hit (it is a hard 10) |
| 8,8 | Split |
| 9,9 | Stand |
| 10,10 | Stand |
| A,A | Split |

## Every stiff hits, and two of them surrender

The dealer's outcomes set the ceiling for every weak hand, ignoring the small effect of the player's own cards. After the peek has ruled out a dealer blackjack, a 10 up produces 17 at 12.1 percent, 18 at 12.1, 19 at 12.1, 20 at 36.8, 21 at 3.8, and a bust at 23.0. Those rounded figures sum to 99.9.

A stiff, hard 12 through 16, beats nothing the dealer is allowed to stand on, so a standing stiff wins only on the bust: 0.230 minus 0.770, about -0.54 per unit. For hard 15 and hard 16, surrendering at a fixed -0.5 beats that, the two cells the shoe chart marks surrender if allowed, otherwise hit.

The fallback is a hit; the two hands' own treatments give the reasons. On [hard 16 against a 10](https://21trainer.app/articles/sixteen-vs-dealer-ten/): hitting loses slightly less than standing, and the surrender is not close, because both hitting and standing are expected to cost more than half a bet. On [hard 15 against a 10](https://21trainer.app/articles/fifteen-vs-dealer-ten/): about 53.8 percent of single draws bust the hand in the infinite deck approximation, but the made totals hitting buys can beat or push dealer hands a standing 15 always loses to, and the wins gained outweigh the dealer busts forfeited, narrowly. Surrender, as our [surrender guide](https://21trainer.app/articles/blackjack-surrender-strategy/) frames it, is an arithmetic comparison, not a defensive habit.

Hard 17 is where standing comes back: it pushes the dealer's 17, loses to 18 through 21 combined, 12.1 plus 12.1 plus 36.8 plus 3.8 for 64.8, and wins only the 23.0 percent bust. That is 0.230 minus 0.648, about -0.42, better than the -0.5 a surrender accepts, so 17 stands and is not surrendered.

## Soft 18 keeps hitting, and 9,9 stands on its 18

Soft 18 hit against the 9 and hits against the 10 for the same reason. An 18 wins when the dealer finishes on 17 or busts, 12.1 plus 23.0 for 35.1 percent, pushes the 18 for another 12.1, and loses to 19, 20 or 21 combined, 12.1 plus 36.8 plus 3.8 for 52.7 percent. Standing loses more often than it wins, and a soft 18 cannot bust on one draw, because the ace drops back to 1. Below it, soft 13 through soft 17 all hit: none can bust, and none beats the dealer's likeliest 20.

The pair of 9s is the same 18 wearing a costume, and here the chart stops splitting it. It splits against the 8 and the 9, and stands here; the reason our [splitting 9s guide](https://21trainer.app/articles/when-to-split-nines/) gives is blunt: the dealer's likeliest finish is 20, the 18 is an underdog and so is anything built from 9s, and when every option loses on average the correct play is the one that loses least, a single bet rather than a second.

## The stands that hold

The same row of outcomes vindicates a 19 and a 20. A 19 wins when the dealer makes 17, 18 or busts, 12.1 plus 12.1 plus 23.0 for 47.2 percent, pushes 12.1, and loses only to 20 or 21, 40.6 percent. A 20 wins 59.3 percent, 12.1 times three for the made totals plus the 23.0 bust, pushes the 36.8 percent dealer 20, and loses only to the 3.8 percent dealer 21. That is why 10,10 stands: a made 20 losing to one dealer outcome is not worth trading for two hands built from scratch.

## One double survives, and two pairs still split

Against the 9, hard 10 and hard 11 both doubled. Against the 10 only hard 11 does, the one double left in the column. The reason hard 10 stops, per our piece on [doubling hard 10](https://21trainer.app/articles/hard-ten-doubling/): a dealer showing a 10 finishes at 20 a large share of the time, the very total the doubled 10 hopes to make, so the hand is a contest of equals and the one card restriction costs more than the extra bet earns; hitting keeps the right to draw again. The 5,5 row moves with it, since 5,5 is a hard 10.

Hard 11 doubles on, and the case in our [hard 11](https://21trainer.app/articles/hard-eleven-doubling/) piece is structural: no card busts an 11, the best draw is a ten value card making 21, and the likeliest draw is that same card, sixteen of every fifty-two. The hand is excellent whatever the dealer shows, and here a closer contest still favors the double.

The pair rows thin to two splits. 8,8 splits, and the framing in [why you always split aces and 8s](https://21trainer.app/articles/always-split-aces-and-eights/) is honest: splitting 8s against a 10 is a losing play that loses less than the hard 16 it escapes. A,A splits, because a pair of aces is a soft 12 going nowhere while each split ace starts from the best opening card in the game, the likeliest draw a ten value making 21. The small pairs, 2,2 through 7,7, all hit: two hands starting from a small card are underdogs against a 10.

## How the rules move this column

The soft 17 rule changes nothing here, at any deck count. A soft 17 is an ace counted as 11 plus exactly 6 more points, and a dealer showing a ten value card already holds 10 points, more than those 6, so a soft 17 is unreachable for that dealer. The rule bites only on the ace and 2 through 6 columns.

Deck count moves exactly two cells. Hard 15 is surrender if allowed, otherwise hit, in the four to eight deck and two deck charts, and a plain hit in the one deck charts. And 7,7 is surrender if allowed, otherwise stand, in one deck, and a hit everywhere else. Hard 16 is surrender if allowed, otherwise hit, in all six charts, and every other cell is identical across them.

For orientation: the step from the 9 column was hard 10 and 5,5 stopping their double, 9,9 going from split to stand, and hard 15 joining hard 16 as a surrender. The step up to the ace, in the shoe chart where the dealer stands on soft 17, is smaller: hard 11 stops doubling, hard 15 goes back to a plain hit; the hit soft 17 shoe chart keeps both cells and instead adds a surrender to hard 17 and 8,8.

## The peek, and insurance

Everything above assumes the dealer peeks, as our piece on [the peek rule](https://21trainer.app/articles/dealer-peek-rule/) explains: with an ace or a ten up, the dealer checks the hole card before anyone acts, and a blackjack ends the hand immediately. By the time you decide, the dealer does not have blackjack, which is why the outcome table excludes dealer blackjacks.

Insurance is a side bet that the dealer has blackjack, offered when the dealer shows an ace, and basic strategy declines it every time.

## Frequently asked questions

### Do you hit 16 against a dealer 10?

In the four to eight deck charts, surrender if allowed, otherwise hit. A standing 16 wins only when the dealer busts, 23.0 percent, so standing averages about -0.54 per unit against the fixed -0.5 of a surrender. With no surrender, hit: it loses slightly less than standing.

### Do you split 9s against a dealer 10?

No, stand. The pair is an 18, and against a 10 the dealer finishes on exactly 20 more often than any other total, 36.8 percent, so the 18 loses more often than it wins. When every option loses on average, the correct play loses least, keeping a single bet on the table. In the shoe charts the 9s split only against 2 through 6, 8 and 9.

### Should you double down against a dealer 10?

With hard 11, yes. No card can bust an 11, the best draw is a ten value card making 21, and that is the likeliest draw, sixteen of every fifty-two. Hard 10 hits instead, because the dealer's likeliest finish, 20, is the total a doubled 10 hopes to make, and the one card restriction costs more than the extra bet earns.

### Does the dealer hitting soft 17 change anything against a 10?

No, not a single cell, at any deck count. A soft 17 is an ace counted as 11 plus exactly 6 more points, and a dealer showing a ten value card already holds 10 points, more than those 6, so a soft 17 is unreachable for that dealer. The soft 17 rule can matter only in the ace and 2 through 6 columns.

### What is the dealer's most likely total with a 10 showing?

Exactly 20, at 36.8 percent per the six deck stands on soft 17 table, counted after the peek rules out a dealer blackjack. The dealer busts only 23.0 percent of the time and makes 17, 18 and 19 about 12.1 percent each. That spike on 20 is a big part of why hard 15 and hard 16 surrender, why 9,9 stands, and why hard 10 stops doubling.

## Keep reading

- [Playing Against a Dealer 9, Hand by Hand](https://21trainer.app/articles/basic-strategy-vs-dealer-nine/)
- [16 Against a 10: The Worst Hand, Played Right](https://21trainer.app/articles/sixteen-vs-dealer-ten/)
- [Hard 15 Against a 10: Surrender, Hit, or Index](https://21trainer.app/articles/fifteen-vs-dealer-ten/)