# How Often the Player and the Dealer Bust

A simulation of about 62 million blackjack rounds measures how often every player hand busts, how often the dealer busts against each upcard, and which starting hands bust most.

Source: https://21trainer.app/articles/how-often-player-and-dealer-bust/
Updated: October 21, 2026
Publisher: 21 Trainer, makers of Blackjack Strategy: 21 Trainer, an educational blackjack trainer for iPhone and Android (App Store: https://apps.apple.com/app/blackjack-strategy-21-trainer/id6759527695, Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.blackjacktrainer)

> **Educational content, not gambling advice.** 21 Trainer and this article teach blackjack strategy and card counting as skills, using virtual chips only. No strategy or counting system guarantees winnings, and nothing here encourages real-money play. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-522-4700 (National Council on Problem Gambling).

Counted over all rounds, the dealer busts more often than the player. In our simulation the dealer went over 21 in 23.16 percent of rounds, while every player hand busted in 15.80 percent of them. That sounds like good news for the player, but the order of play cuts the other way: the player acts first.

A player bust loses the bet on the spot. When every player hand has busted, the round is lost and the dealer does not draw, so whatever the dealer's next cards would have done no longer matters.

The figures come from our simulation: about 62 million rounds, the same rounds as our piece on [what share of rounds you win, push and lose](https://21trainer.app/articles/how-often-you-win-a-hand/), rerun with more detail; its overall figures match that article's exactly. One player, a flat one-unit bet, basic strategy from the app's 4 to 8 deck chart. The rules: six decks, dealer stands on soft 17 and peeks, blackjack pays 3:2, double on any two cards, double after split, split to four hands, one card to split aces, no resplitting aces, no surrender, cut card at 75 percent penetration.

## Four numbers, carefully defined

Each figure has its own denominator. *Every player hand busts* is a share of all rounds: the rounds in which every player hand, split or not, went over 21. *Hands bust* is a share of player hands in rounds without a natural; it runs higher because it leaves out the rounds a natural settled, in which no hand busts. The dealer *draws to the end* only when at least one player hand still stands and no natural settled the round. *Would bust*, the counterfactual, is how often the dealer would have broken had it drawn to the end in every round without a natural; when it did not need to draw, the simulation read the next cards in the shoe without dealing them.

- Every player hand busts in 15.80 percent of rounds. Some but not every hand busts in another 0.237 percent, all split rounds.
- 17.19 percent of player hands bust, counting rounds without a natural.
- The dealer draws to the end in 74.92 percent of rounds and busts in 30.91 percent of those: 23.16 percent of all rounds (0.3091 times 74.92).
- Had it drawn every time, it would have busted in 29.59 percent of rounds without a natural.
- The remaining 9.28 percent (100 minus 15.80 minus 74.92) were settled by a natural before anyone drew.

## Busts by dealer upcard

Split the rounds by upcard, and the two sides of the race separate: against 2 through 6 the player rarely busts and the dealer busts most, and against 7 through ace the pattern flips.

| Upcard | Every player hand busts | Dealer draws to the end | Dealer busts, of rounds where it draws | Dealer busts, of all rounds | Dealer would bust | Published bust figure |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 | 3.01% | 92.22% | 35.33% | 32.58% | 35.33% | 35.4% |
| 3 | 2.95% | 92.27% | 37.40% | 34.51% | 37.39% | 37.4% |
| 4 | 0.00% | 95.23% | 39.55% | 37.67% | 39.55% | 39.6% |
| 5 | 0.00% | 95.23% | 41.79% | 39.80% | 41.79% | 41.8% |
| 6 | 0.00% | 95.22% | 42.27% | 40.25% | 42.27% | 42.3% |
| 7 | 25.61% | 69.60% | 26.19% | 18.23% | 26.17% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 26.25% | 68.98% | 24.37% | 16.81% | 24.36% | 24.4% |
| 9 | 26.61% | 68.60% | 22.92% | 15.72% | 22.93% | 22.9% |
| 10 | 25.34% | 62.56% | 23.03% | 14.41% | 23.03% | 23.0% |
| Ace | 19.80% | 46.19% | 16.71% | 7.72% | 16.71% | 16.7% |

The last column is the bust column of the published [dealer final total distribution](https://21trainer.app/articles/dealer-final-total-distribution/) for six decks, standing on soft 17, after the peek. Our would bust column agrees with it to within 0.1 of a point at every upcard. In the ace and 10 rows, the columns counted over all rounds include the rounds where the dealer had blackjack and nobody drew, which is one reason, with the player's own busts, that the dealer draws in only 46.19 percent of ace rounds.

The dealer's measured bust rate, 30.91 percent of the rounds where it draws, sits above the 29.59 percent it would bust drawing every time, and the upcard rows are consistent with a mix effect. Within an upcard the two figures barely differ (35.33 and 35.33 against a 2, 26.19 and 26.17 against a 7), but the dealer draws in 92 to 95 percent of rounds against a 2 through 6, where the player rarely busts, and in only 62 to 70 percent against a 7 through 10, where the player often busts first. Weighting each upcard's would bust figure by how often the dealer drew against it gives back about 30.9 percent.

## The race, upcard by upcard

Against a 4, 5 or 6, every player hand busts in 0.00 percent of rounds, a true zero. The chart never takes a card that can bust there: hard 12 through 16 stand, the hands that draw or double, soft hands and totals of 11 or less, cannot go over 21 on the next card, and a draw that lands on 12 through 16 stops. Every stiff waits for the dealer to break, as our [play by play against a dealer 6](https://21trainer.app/articles/basic-strategy-vs-dealer-six/) walks through.

Against a 2 or a 3, every player hand busts in 3.01 and 2.95 percent of rounds. The only draw that can bust there is a hit on hard 12, which the chart takes against both, whether the hand starts at 12 or reaches it; hard 13 through 16 stand. Our piece on [12 against a 2 and a 3](https://21trainer.app/articles/twelve-vs-dealer-two-three/) covers why the chart takes that risk.

Against 7 through 10, every player hand busts in about a quarter of rounds: 25.61, 26.25, 26.61 and 25.34 percent. Against a 10 the dealer busts in only 23.03 percent of the rounds where it draws, yet the player takes cards anyway, because standing on a stiff against a 10 costs more still, as our breakdown of [16 against a 10](https://21trainer.app/articles/sixteen-vs-dealer-ten/) prices out.

## Which starting hands bust

A selection of starting hands shows where the chart accepts risk.

| Starting hand | Every hand busts, percent of rounds with that starting hand |
| --- | --- |
| Hard 16 | 34.67% |
| Hard 15 | 33.17% |
| Hard 12 | 32.11% |
| Hard 14 | 31.40% |
| Hard 13 | 29.47% |
| 6,6 | 27.83% |
| 7,7 | 27.61% |
| Soft 16 | 22.30% |
| Soft 13 | 18.07% |
| 8,8 | 1.81% |
| Hard 11 | 1.14% |

Hard 17 and up, soft 19 and 20, 10,10, A,A and naturals never bust: they stand, and split aces take one card each. At the other end, hard 16 tops the list at 34.67 percent. Like hard 13 through 15 it hits against 7 through ace, and a hit from 16 busts more often than a hit from any lower total.

One surprise: hard 12 busts more often than hard 13 and 14, 32.11 against 29.47 and 31.40 percent, though it sits farther from 21. Hard 13 and 14 stand against everything below a 7, while hard 12 also hits against a 2 and a 3, and every extra hit is another chance to break.

The pairs 6,6 and 7,7 rank high because, where the chart does not split them, they are a hard 12 and a hard 14 hit against strong upcards. Soft hands sit below the hard stiffs: they cannot bust on the next card, though draws can harden them, and soft 16 still busts in 22.30 percent of its rounds. Hard 11 busts in just 1.14 percent, because it doubles against 2 through 10 and hits only against an ace, where an ace through 5 leaves a stiff that draws again.

Pat hands never bust, yet the dealer busts against them only about 29.5 percent of the time it draws (hard 17: 29.58). Whether standing beats hitting compares two expected results, not two bust rates, the argument our [guide to hitting and standing](https://21trainer.app/articles/when-to-hit-or-stand/) makes; our piece on [which starting hands make and lose money](https://21trainer.app/articles/expected-value-of-each-starting-hand/) gives each hand's average result.

## What the bust rates will not tell you

Bust rates show where the chart takes risk, but they settle no decision alone: a play is compared against the alternative, not against zero. Standing on a stiff wins only when the dealer breaks, and even with a 6 up the dealer stands more often than not; the one-card bust chances by total are in our article on [busting on every hard total](https://21trainer.app/articles/blackjack-bust-probability-by-total/). Nothing here is betting advice. The figures show the shape of the race: the dealer busts most against 2 through 6, where the chart stands on most stiffs, the player busts far more often against 7 through ace, where it hits them, and a player who busts loses before the dealer draws, one part of the house edge.

## Frequently asked questions

### How often does the dealer bust in blackjack?

In our six-deck simulation, with the dealer standing on soft 17 and peeking, the dealer busts in 23.16 percent of all rounds, or 30.91 percent of the rounds in which it draws to the end. Of those rounds it busts 35.33 percent of the time with a 2 up, 42.27 percent with a 6 up and 16.71 percent with an ace up, the lowest of any upcard.

### Who busts more often, the player or the dealer?

The dealer, counted over all rounds: it busts in 23.16 percent of them, while every player hand busts in 15.80 percent. Yet a hand that goes over 21 is lost before the dealer draws, so a dealer bust that might have followed never helps it. That order of play is one part of the house edge.

### Why does the player never bust against a dealer 4, 5 or 6?

Because the chart our simulation uses, the app's 4 to 8 deck chart, never takes a card that can bust against those upcards. Hard 12 through 16 all stand, and the hands that draw, soft hands and hard totals of 11 or less, cannot go over 21 on the next card; a draw that makes 12 through 16 stops there. The simulation measured 0.00 percent against each.

### What are the chances of busting on one more card?

Per the infinite-deck approximation in our article on bust probability by total, one hit busts a hard 12 about 30.8 percent of the time and a hard 16 about 61.5 percent. Each point of total from 12 upward adds one busting rank, and the cards already dealt shift the real figures slightly.

### Can you practice these hit and stand decisions in 21 Trainer?

Yes. The app gives instant right or wrong feedback with an explanation on every decision, and its charts redraw for the rules you select, from the deck count to the soft 17 rule. The aim is the play the chart calls for, not the one that avoids a bust.

## Keep reading

- [Your Chance of Busting on Every Hard Total](https://21trainer.app/articles/blackjack-bust-probability-by-total/)
- [What the Dealer Actually Ends Up With, Upcard by Upcard](https://21trainer.app/articles/dealer-final-total-distribution/)
- [What Share of Blackjack Rounds Do You Win, Push and Lose?](https://21trainer.app/articles/how-often-you-win-a-hand/)