Ask a player what a dealer busts on and they can usually name the bust rates. Ask what the dealer finishes with when they do not bust, and the answer is a shrug. Busting is only one of six possible outcomes, and the other five explain several of the strategy chart's odder-looking rules: why a 17 against a 7 is a stand, why 16 against the same card is a hit, and why some upcards feel heavy in a way the bust rate alone does not explain.
The dealer has no choices. They draw to a fixed rule and stop, which means the upcard alone determines a complete probability distribution over six outcomes: 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, or bust. Those distributions have been computed exactly, and this article reads them out in full.
One framing note before the numbers. Our guide to the dealer upcard covers bust rates alone; this article adds the rest of the distribution. The exact figures depend on the soft 17 rule: in the six-deck tables below, a 6 busts 42.3 percent of the time when the dealer stands on soft 17 and 43.9 percent when the dealer hits it, while the 7 sits at 26.2 percent under either rule. Read each table under the conditions stated with it.
The full table: dealer stands on soft 17
Probabilities of the dealer's final total, as percentages, computed by Wizard of Odds under United States rules. Table conditions: six decks, dealer stands on all 17s, dealer has checked and does not have blackjack.
| Upcard | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 18.8 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 7.7 | 16.7 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 35.4 |
| 3 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 37.4 |
| 4 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 39.6 |
| 5 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 41.8 |
| 6 | 16.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 42.3 |
| 7 | 36.9 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 26.2 |
| 8 | 12.9 | 36.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 24.4 |
| 9 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 35.2 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 22.9 |
| 10 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 36.8 | 3.8 | 23.0 |
Read a row across, and each row sums to about 100 percent before rounding. The rounding is honest to one decimal: the 2 upcard bust probability is 0.353504, which is 35.4 percent, and the 7 upcard's chance of finishing on exactly 17 is 0.369208, which is 36.9 percent.
The ten in the hole pattern
Look down the diagonal of the strong upcards and a pattern appears. With a 7 up, the most likely single finish is 17 at 36.9 percent. With an 8 up, it is 18 at 36.0 percent. With a 9 up, it is 19 at 35.2 percent. With a 10 up, it is 20 at 36.8 percent. Each upcard's peak sits exactly ten above the upcard itself, and each peak is roughly the same height.
The cause is the composition of the deck. Ten-value cards are the most common single card: four of the thirteen ranks are 10s, jacks, queens or kings. The single most likely thing that can happen to a dealer hand is drawing a ten, and a ten turns a 7 into 17, an 8 into 18, and so on. The folklore rule of assuming a ten in the hole is a poor basis for decisions, as the upcard guide explains, but it is a decent first approximation of the single most likely outcome, which is a different claim.
The pattern has a practical edge for the player. Against a 7, the dealer's most likely destination is a 17, which a player 18 or better beats and a player 17 ties. Against a 10, the destination is a 20, which almost nothing beats. The same upcard arithmetic that sets the bust cliff also sets how good a hand you need before standing becomes the better play.
21 TrainerFree on the App Store. Drill every total against every upcard, with the reason behind each answer.
Get the app
The rare 21, and the bust cliff
Two oddities in the table reward a second look. The first is the 21 column against a 10 up: just 3.8 percent, by far the rarest cell in the table. The quickest route from a 10 upcard to 21 is an ace in the hole, but an ace with a 10 is a blackjack, and these tables exclude hands where the dealer holds one. In a United States game the dealer checks for blackjack immediately, as our piece on the peek rule explains, so every one of those instant outcomes is already gone by the time you act. Drawn-out 21s are what remain, and they are genuinely rare.
The second oddity is the bust column's shape. It climbs steadily as the upcard weakens: 35.4 percent with a 2, then 37.4, 39.6, 41.8, and 42.3 with a 6. Then it falls off a cliff to 26.2 percent with a 7. The 7 is the first upcard that reaches a standing total with a single ten-value card, and the whole seam in the strategy chart between the 6 column and the 7 column lives in that one step. Our article on bust probability by total covers the player side of the same arithmetic.
What hitting soft 17 changes
The second table shows the dealer odds when the house makes the dealer hit soft 17. Table conditions: six decks, dealer hits soft 17, dealer has checked and does not have blackjack. Only the rows that change are shown: a soft 17 is an ace counted as 11 plus exactly 6 more points, so with a 7 or higher showing the upcard alone already exceeds those 6 points and the dealer can never hold a soft 17. Those rows are identical to the table above.
| Upcard | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 8.3 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 9.5 | 20.1 |
| 2 | 13.0 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 35.7 |
| 3 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 37.7 |
| 4 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 39.8 |
| 5 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 42.0 |
| 6 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 43.9 |
Compare the two 6 rows and the two ace rows, where the soft 17 rule bites hardest. With a 6 up, the chance of finishing on exactly 17 falls from 16.6 percent to 11.5 percent, and the bust rate rises from 42.3 to 43.9. With an ace up, the 17 column collapses from 18.8 percent to 8.3 percent while the bust rate rises from 16.7 to 20.1. Most of the redrawn soft hands move up into 18 through 21, which is the main reason the rule costs the player despite the extra busting: more redraws improve the dealer's hand than break it. Our S17 versus H17 comparison prices the rule and lists the player decisions that move with it.
Why this table runs the chart
The last step is connecting the distribution to the decisions. A dealer total of 17 beats only a player 16 or less and pushes a player 17. So when a 7 upcard piles 36.9 percent of its probability onto exactly 17, a player 17 pushes or wins 63.1 percent of the time (the 36.9 push plus the 26.2 bust) and standing is right, while a player 16 loses to that 17 and to every other dealer total, wins only on the 26.2 percent bust, and so is better off drawing despite the bust risk. That single comparison, 17 standing while 16 hits against the same upcard, follows straight out of the row.
The same reading works down the chart. Against a 10, the dealer's mass sits on 20, so middling player hands rarely win by standing and the chart becomes aggressive. Against a 5 or a 6, over two fifths of the probability is in the bust column, so stiff player hands stand and let the dealer break. Each of those rules rests on a row in this table, together with the player's own chance of improving, which is worth knowing the next time the chart feels arbitrary. Our guide to when to hit and when to stand turns that logic into the specific plays, and the frequency of pushes explains why those 17-versus-17 ties matter more than they look.
Learn the why, not just the chartEvery hand with a clear explanation, under the exact rules you set. No account, no ads, works offline.
Download
Frequently asked questions
What does the dealer bust on the most in blackjack?
A 6 upcard, per the commonly published six-deck tables where the dealer stands on soft 17 and has already checked for blackjack: the dealer busts 42.3 percent of the time with a 6 showing, against 41.8 percent for a 5. The bust rate then drops sharply at a 7 upcard, to 26.2 percent, a cliff that shapes much of the strategy chart.
What is the dealer's most likely total with a 7 showing?
17. Per the six-deck table where the dealer stands on soft 17 and has no blackjack, a dealer with a 7 up finishes on exactly 17 about 36.9 percent of the time, more than any other single outcome, because a single ten-value card completes the hand. That spike is a big part of why a made 17 against a 7 is a clear stand while 16 against a 7 is a hit.
Does the dealer bust more when hitting soft 17?
Yes, on the upcards where soft 17 is reachable: the ace and 2 through 6. With a 6 up, the bust rate rises from 42.3 percent when standing on soft 17 to 43.9 percent when hitting it, and with an ace up it rises from 16.7 to 20.1 percent. The extra busts are outweighed by hands the dealer improves, which is the main reason the rule favors the house.
Why does the dealer rarely make 21 with a 10 showing?
Because the most direct route from a 10 upcard to 21 is an ace in the hole, which is a blackjack rather than a 21. These tables assume the dealer has already checked and does not have blackjack, so all the hands that would have ended instantly are excluded. What remains is a 3.8 percent chance of a drawn-out 21 against a 10 upcard, the rarest cell in the stands-on-soft-17 table.
Do these dealer totals change with the number of decks?
Slightly, and the shape of the distribution survives. The figures here come from a six-deck game under United States rules, with the dealer assumed to have no blackjack. Published tables for other deck counts differ by small amounts, so treat the percentages as the six-deck version rather than universal constants.